Flood outlook - 9 January

  09 January 2016

Nigel Goody, Hydrology Duty Manager for SEPA, said:

A mainly dry start expected for today, before a band of rain and hill snow spreads from the south this afternoon. This initial band of rainfall will clear to the North of Scotland and bring scattered widespread showers of around 15mm. Another area of heavier rain will spread north later in the evening and overnight, giving another wet night in the northeast. As we move into Sunday the persistent rain starts to move towards the far north, with snow possible over Shetland, whilst becoming showery elsewhere across the North. Severe gale force winds are forecast to develop during Saturday evening and throughout Sunday which could generate high waves and spray for the Northern and Western Isles.

“The Severe Flood Warning “No Longer in Force” messages have been issued for Inverurie and Kintore. While peak flows from the River Don in these areas will be significantly lower than in recent days, there remains the potential for further heavy showers in flood affected areas. Significant impacts are likely to continue along the River Don and Ythan valleys as river levels remain high and flood affected areas are heavily saturated from recent flooding. Ongoing impacts may include flooding to local communities and disruption to transport links.

“The flood risk is expected to decrease for the wider Aberdeenshire area throughout Saturday and Sunday as river levels have dropped considerably overnight. The forecast rainfall on Saturday evening and Sunday could cause rivers to respond, however peaks are generally expected to be much lower than those seen in the past 10 days. Smaller water courses are most at risk during this time due to their limited capacity and general level of ground saturation.  

“In Dundee, Angus and Tayside minor impacts are possible on Saturday into Sunday should the heaviest rainfall affect these areas. Similarly on Sunday, minor impacts are possible in Caithness and Sutherland, Easter Ross and the Great Glen, Findhorn and Nairn and Orkney. Impacts are expected to be localised and include flooding of land and local disruption to travel.

“High waves are expected during Saturday and Sunday with localised spray and wave overtopping possible along eastern facing coastlines of the Western and Northern Isles and in particular the Moray Firth and eastern Caithness and Sutherland coastline around high tide Sunday morning.

“While a generally improving picture, members of the public should remain alert to the possibility of further flooding impacts throughout the weekend and prepare accordingly, especially if travelling. Keep up to date with the latest live flood updates or sign up to Floodline on 0345 988 1188 for the latest information on flood risk in your area.”